NEoWave Blog
1/23/2022 - NEoWave Staff

SPECIAL ALERT (JANUARY 23): Stage 1 & Stage 2 Confirmation Achieved

On Sunday, January 23, 2022, (10:30AM Pacific Time), Glenn Neely released this Special Alert to his NEoWave Trading and Forecasting subscribers. We are sharing it here for anyone concerned about successful trading and Wave forecasting in this uncertain market environment.

From the desk of NEoWave and NRT technology founder, Glenn Neely

JANUARY 23, 2022 (10:30 am Pacific Time)

Under NEoWave theory, the only way you can be confident a pattern has concluded (and that your analysis is accurate) is after "confirmation" has occurred. Confirmation is when post-pattern price action moves further and faster than the largest counter-trend wave of the prior pattern. This process always occurs in stages, starting from the smallest timeframe to the largest. If a pattern ends daily structure, confirmation can begin on intra-day charts and work up to daily. If the pattern forming is ending 6-monthly structure, confirmation will "roll up" from daily to weekly to monthly and finally to 6-monthly charts over days, weeks, and months.

In September, I warned that a major stock market top was forming in the S&P. Those public announcements occurred after daily and weekly confirmation; unfortunately, the S&P never dropped far enough and fast enough to confirm monthly structure. As a result, Stage 1 & 2 confirmation never rolled into Stage 3, thereby nullifying the "emergency" that typically follows. Consequently, the S&P was able to recover and make new, all-time highs in November and December. Whenever full confirmation is not achieved, the process "resets."

For the first time since September, the S&P has dropped fast enough to, once again, give us Stage 1 confirmation (see the daily chart below) and Stage 2 confirmation (see the weekly chart below). As each larger degree confirmation is acheived, the odds increase that confirmation will occur on the highest timeframe. For example, when the S&P recently dropped enough to achieve Stage 1 confirmation (see the dashed red rectangle), the odds were about 60% the "bull market" off the March 2020 low was over. When Stage 2 confirmation occurred last week (see the smaller solid red box on the daily chart), the odds increased to about 80%. IF the S&P is able to achieve Stage 3 confirmation this week or next week (see the larger red box on the daily chart), the odds will increase to 90%+ that the bull market is over and that a 3-5 year bear market correction is underway (see blue-dashed forecast line on monthly and 6-monthly charts).

Stage 3 confirmation requires the cash S&P break 4305 by or before early February (the sooner the better). If that occurs, we can be confident the bull market is over and that a very large, volatile bear market consolidation has begun. If the cash S&P DOES NOT break 4305 in the next few weeks, then once again the confirmation process will "reset" and the S&P is back in an environment where it's possible all-time new highs will be made later this year.


Glenn Neely
Founder of NEoWave and Neely River Trading technology
NEoWave, Inc.


Glenn Neely NEoWave Forecasting chart 1 on January 23, 2022


Glenn Neely NEoWave Forecasting chart 2 on January 23, 2022


Glenn Neely NEoWave Forecasting chart 3 on January 23, 2022


Glenn Neely NEoWave Forecasting chart 4 on January 23, 2022

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