Question of the Week: 10/26/2011

Recently, you released trading performance for all NEoWave Trading services. During the last 2 years, like most Elliott Wave analysts, you were frequently bearish on the U.S. stock market. How is it possible you made money during that period?


One of the greatest misconceptions the public has about investing is that an accurate forecast equals a profitable trade. In addition, most assume a bad forecast equals a losing trade. Both assumptions are incorrect. Accurate forecasts and successful trades have little to do with each other.

Since mid 2009, I've released 3-4 major, "public predictions" about the future course of the U.S. stock market. While those forecasts were, at the time, made in good faith, based on presumed wave structure, and valid reasoning, they turned out to be wrong. Any non-subscriber would reasonably assume, like you are doing, that my forecasts produced losing trades. While some NEoWave S&P trades (the last 2+ years) lost money, a significant portion were exited at a profit or break-even (i.e., we got out BEFORE the stock market's uptrend resumed)!

Consequently, from 2009's low to 2011's high - despite repeated, inaccurate, bearish "public" stock market FORECASTS - subscribers who followed my NEoWave TRADIING advice actually made money. As a matter of fact, the return on a single futures contract (based on Daily trading recommendations) was $3,400. Results from Weekly trading advice were even better (i.e., for the same 2.5 years, assuming an equity position of 500 shares per trade, the profit was $14,700). Trade-by-trade results can be found on our website at

Many get so caught up in what I call "the forecasting paradigm" that they forget the goal of trading is to make money. Profitable trading is NOT accomplished by blindly depending on accurate market forecasts. It is accomplished by carefully planning your entries and placing an initial stop-loss, keeping risk to 1-2% of total capital, reducing risk to zero as quickly as possible and placing a reasonable limit order to exit at a level where a profit can be made.

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