Question of the Week: 8/13/2010

You frequently talk as if trading can be profitable without forecasting...I'm confused.


The best way to explain my position on markets, forecasting and trading is to make comparisons to what may seem like a completely different world - that of being lost in a jungle, paddling a small boat, in a river, with the goal of reaching the ocean.

In such a scenario, does it make sense to "predict" which way the ocean is (north, south, east or west) so you can decide how to paddle? Clearly, such a strategy guarantees failure (i.e., you will eventually strike the edge of the river). The direction you paddle your boat currently has NOTHING to do with the direction a bird would fly to reach the ocean. Achieving your goal is completely separate from what you need to do moment-by-moment to safely navigate the river, avoiding rocks, waterfalls and sandbars. As long as you survive your voyage, the river will eventually "push" you to your destination (i.e., the ocean).

After 20 years of struggling to reconcile the two, in 2001, I began to appreciate the "vast ocean" that separates the trading and forecasting worlds. "The Forecast," I came to understand, had nothing to do with "The Trade." From that realization came a paradigm shift in my thinking about markets, which was the beginning of the concepts that have evolved into NEELY RIVER trading technology (NRT). NRT constantly adapts to ever-changing market environments and conditions. Over the last 10 years, NRT has achieved a sophisticated level, enabling anyone to "navigate" markets as opposed to "forecasting" markets. NRT addresses how you should behave (not what the market should do) and how you should manage your trades, bar-by-bar, until the "flow of the market" takes you to your final destination (i.e., profits).

After nearly 30 years of following, forecasting and trading markets, I'm confident Neely River is a "game changer" in the field of investing. In the near future, I'll explain, in detail, what Neely River Theory is all about and how it substantially improves the trader's ability to extract profits from a market.

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