Question of the Week: 7/29/2009

You don't seem to care much whether your forecasts come true. You change your mind at the drop of a pen if the market does the slightest thing wrong. How can you trade like that?


When it comes to markets, you have to decide between one of two things; do you want to make money or do you want to be right? Most prefer to be "right" not realizing that such a decision actually gets in the way of making money. Most focus on big forecasts and "dreams of riches" instead of the capital being lost. Your focus must be on safe entry points where risk can be controlled and on getting out quickly when the market does something unexpected.

Forecasts shift your focus from the losses being taken by distracting you with the fantasy of large, future returns (sounds like Vegas, doesn't it). A market forecast can create similar emotions to those generated within a casino. When at a slot machine, every time you pull the lever, you can focus on the money you MIGHT make OR you can focus on the money you are continually losing. Focusing only on the million dollars you might make will distract you - potentially long enough - from the fact you are throwing money away every time you pull the handle (exactly what the casinos want).

So, to answer your question, I ultimately don't care whether my forecasts turn out right. What I DO care about is helping my clients make money and working very hard to make sure they lose money as seldom as possible and as little as possible when losses are taken. That way, when good trades come around, we are not spending most of our time simply trying to get back to breakeven, but actually making new "high ground" headway with our account balances.

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