Question of the Week: 6/17/2009

Why do you not release intra-day, real-time analysis ? Isn't that important considering the fractal nature of wave theory?


Hidden within your statement is the assumption markets can accurately be labeled and predicted on every time frame at all times. Unfortunately, that simply is not the case.

Markets move from periods of structural clarity to structural ambiguity or confusion. When a market is near the beginning or end of multiple larger and smaller degree patterns, clarity will be high along with forecasting accuracy. As a market moves further away from the beginning or end of multiple degree formations, clarity drops and forecasting is sometimes impossible. If it is attempted, those forecasts will frequently be wrong. It is at such times the reputation of wave theory is damaged (both from the eyes of the practitioner and the public). There is NO answer to this problem; it simply is a reality of markets and must be accepted.

For the reasons mentioned above, it is seldom of value to my customers to attempt intra-day wave analysis, especially when Daily or Weekly wave counts are not clear. The only time honing in on intra-day structure is of value is when all larger degree patterns (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) are near the end of their development. When near the middle of a complex Weekly or Monthly structure, it is even a waste of time to follow Daily charts.

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