Question of the Week: 8/17/2009

How do you use or interpret fundamentals and does news move markets?


Contrary to what many Elliott Wave analysts believe, news DOES move markets, some times. Its impact is dependent on the pattern forming and which leg of that pattern is currently unfolding.

In patterns with an expanding bias, sensational news is most likely to occur near the peaks or troughs of each leg of the pattern. When in a contracting pattern, the news that most impacts price action tends to happen near the middle of each leg of the formation. For Flats and Zigzags, the best or worst news will occur as wave-C comes to an end. In impulsive uptrends, good news begins around the middle of wave-3 and continues through the end of wave-5.

To complicate matters, the degree of the pattern forming plays a BIG part in how the news impacts its development and whether it is of any use for trading. If wave-E consumes a week or two, the above discussion might easily apply. If wave-E takes 1-2 years, you will get weeks or months of positive news (in an uptrend) before "the top" is made, which makes the positive news virtually useless for picking a top. In such an uptrend, the final high is likely to create a violent, upside gap opening that may appear as an "island top" on a daily, weekly or monthly chart. As a result, the larger the pattern forming, the less news can be used to "confirm" a counter-trend entry point.

Based on the information above, news should never be considered in absolute terms, but must be contextualized to understand its significance and usefulness.

Click here to view NEoWave's Question Of The Week archive