Question of the Week: 8/2/2012

Frequently, in your Trading service you enter markets, move stops and exit positions inconsistent with your wave theory forecasts. Why?


The primary goal of the NEoWave TRADING service is to make money for subscribers; the goal of the NEoWave FORECASTING service is to provide subscribers detailed predictions of future price action. Those are separate goals; as a result, my trading recommendations are sometimes out-of-sync with my wave forecasts. The rules required to make money trading are entirely different from those necessary to predict the future. As this fact became increasingly clear to me the last decade, I began to separate the techniques used in the Trading services from those used in the Forecasting services.

At times, Wave theory can be great at predicting price action, but such forecasts may have little to do with how a market should be approached (trading should first focus on controlling risk, second on getting risk to zero and third on making money). Except under rare conditions, when major new trends are beginning or ending, Wave theory is not good at defining trading parameters (i.e., entries, stop placement, stop movement and targets). Even worse, when your focus is on where you think a market is going and how much money you will make from such a move, you may forget about managing risk. As a result, if the trade goes wrong, you could end up losing much more than originally planned.

The recent upgrade to all NEoWave TRADING services is the latest in that process of separating the purpose of the Forecasting service from the Trading service. The NEW Trading service fully exploits NEELY RIVER trading technology, which focuses on trading strategy (i.e., money management, risk control, how positions should be entered, stops placed and exits determined). Neely River is never concerned with your beliefs about the future; it focuses on the things we have control over (i.e., when and where we enter, where we place stops, how much we risk, when and where we exit). Neely River techniques are founded in concrete price history (i.e., what we know about the past and what we can control, not what we don't know and not what we can't control).

So, to answer your question, when trades in the Trading service do not appear in sync with wave projections in the Forecasting service, it is because I'm focused on controlling risk, reducing risk to zero and looking for current and past price behavior clues that allow us to move stops or exit a position at a profit. My focus in the Trading service is NOT on what I believe will occur in the future (based on a wave forecast) but what is best for preservation and enhancement of investment capital.

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