Question of the Week: 6/21/2012

Many analysts expect the bear market (starting in the year 2000) to end by 2014 or 2017. You expect this bear market to last until at least 2020 and possibly as far out as 2030. Why?


The first thing to realize about markets (and wave theory) is that everything is relative. Most call the stock market advance of the last 3-years a "bull market," but under wave theory it is a 3-year, counter-trend corrective rally. It may "look and feel" like a bull market, but whatever direction a market moves the fastest is its REAL trend. The "crash" of 2008-2009 is the REAL trend of the current stock market. The super slow, choppy, complex corrective nature of the rally since 2009's low makes it clear the REAL trend of the stock market is still down.

Based on extremely reliable NEoWave timing concepts, the time of any correction [when it follows an impulsive advance (wave-3 in this case, which took 19 years)] will exceed the time of the previous impulsion. Therefore, the correction starting in 2000 MUST last at least 20 years so it exceeds the time of wave-3 (I rounded up from 19). Since many corrections take 161.8% of the time of the prior impulsion, the correction starting in 2000 could last until 2030.

Any time after 2020, the U.S. stock market is "allowed" to begin a new bull market, but it that may not begin until 2030. Before 2020, all rallies under NEoWave - no matter how large, time-consuming or elaborate - will be counter-trend and corrective in nature, NOT the start of a new, "true bull market." That doesn't mean a rally won't "look and feel" like a bull market, but any rally before 2020 will be dwarfed by what the stock market does once the REAL bull market begins after 2020.

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