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Question Of The Week - Library Of Past Questions |
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| 7/15/2009 |
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| Question: |
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Does the slowness of the S&P's decline call into question your expectation for a market collapse later this year?
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| Answer:
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Just the opposite; the slowness of the decline is exactly what I have warned for weeks would occur after June's peak. Following wave-E of any expanding Triangle, that is one of the only times the phenomenon of NEoWave "confirmation" will not occur (i.e., when measured from high-to-low or low-to-high, the market does not retrace all of wave-E in less time than wave-E took to form).
In the same way this expanding Triangle has, since October 2008, repeatedly caused most to think "the bottom is in," the post-expanding Triangle behavior will continuously make us feel a new downtrend has not started. It will become obvious wave-E has peaked only once the S&P breaks 800 and begins to accelerate downward.
(NOTE: The above analysis leaves no room for error and provides no alternate count, so on the outside chance the June 11, 2009 high is exceeded before the S&P breaks 500, the above analysis will no longer apply and a new, unknown scenario will take over)
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