Question Of The Week - 2/25/2009

This question has been asked (and answered) so many times in private that it is time to address it publicly. Unlike the tendency most EW analysts have of ending wave patterns at market tops or bottoms, under NEoWave, market trends frequently end above lows or below highs. The end of a pessimistic or optimistic social mood is not based on price peaks or troughs but on changes in public "feeling." In big uptrends, most rising patterns end at or before price highs and most declining patterns end after market lows. The opposite is true if the main trend is down.

With that in mind, it is easy to understand how the S&P began (in 2008) a 4-6 year "bear market" in social psychology, but that the market's price low is likely to happen during the first or second quarter of 2009. After that low, the S&P is expected to consolidate (possibly in a contracting Triangle) for a few years without breaking 2009's low. Eventually, wave-C, of an ongoing, NEoWave Neutral Triangle, will complete way above the 2009 low sometime in 2012 to 2014, at which time the multi-year, D-wave rally will begin.